Predicting the Future of Aesthetic Surgery: An Artificial Intelligence Framework for Global Publication Forecasting

Early human evidence such as case series or small samples is exploring possible benefits.

• Level A · Stronger Clinical Evidence
• Level B · Emerging clinical evidence with positive signals
• Level C · Early human research exploring benefits
• Level D · Scientific groundwork from lab and animal studies
• Emerging · Emerging topic under active research

Abstract (original English)

Background Artificial intelligence (AI) has transformed clinical decision making, yet its application to forecasting the evolution of surgical science remains underdeveloped. Anticipating future research trajectories represents a critical unmet need for strategic planning, workforce allocation, and innovation stewardship in aesthetic surgery. Objectives The aim of this study was to develop and validate an AI-assisted forecasting framework capable of modeling and predicting global aesthetic surgery research activity. Methods We performed a population-level observational analysis of all PubMed-indexed aesthetic surgery publications from 2010 to 2024. A fully autonomous AI pipeline conducted large-scale data ingestion, followed by high-fidelity semantic classification of publications by research domain and country (validated accuracy >97%). Annualized outputs were analyzed using optimized exponential-smoothing and autoregressive time-series models to generate long-horizon forecasts with 95% CIs. Results The framework processed 24,026 records, yielding 23,521 eligible publications across 13 journals. Exponential smoothing demonstrated superior predictive performance (R2 = 0.94, root mean square error = 166.6). Global research output is projected to increase by 21.9% by 2030, reaching 2939 publications annually (95% CI, 2612-3265). Minimally invasive and injectable research exhibite

Evidence level

Early human evidence such as case series or small samples is exploring possible benefits.

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